Financial Indicator Analysis On Companies Inside The Watchboard List Of Indonesia Stock Exchange
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.35384/jemp.v10i3.601Keywords:
IDX watchboard list, financial indicators, MDA, logistic regression, prediction modelsAbstract
In June 2023, Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) announced the watchboard list, comprised of underperforming companies struggling to meet financial requirements. As of September 11 2024, this list includes 223 companies. This research studied the financial indicators that may influence whether a company will be put in IDX watchboard list, and attempted to generate a model to predict whether a company will be placed inside IDX watchboard list in the next two years. The sample data used are the financial indicators of companies on the IDX watchboard list on the year of 2022 and 2023. The sample data also includes companies outside the IDX watchboard list, random sampled so that the number of data of companies inside the IDX watchboard list is the same with the number of data of companies inside the IDX watchboard list. The finding suggests all these financial indicators have influence: WOTA (working capital divided by total asset), RETA (retained earnings divided by total asset), EBTTA (earnings before taxes divided by total asset), PBV (market value of equity divided by book value of equity) and STA (total sales divided by total asset). Investors may use the prediction models generated in this research in deciding whick stocks to buy. This research generated a MDA based prediction model and a logistic regression based prediction model that may predict whether a company will be place inside IDX watchboard list in the coming two years. The logistic regression based prediction model shows better results that the MDA based one.
References
Abimanyu, A., Imansyah, M. H., & Pratama , M. A. . (2023). Will Indonesia enter the 2023 financial crisis? Application of early warning model system. Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, 15(1), 28–41. https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss1.art3
Adipati, Adipati (2017) Analisis Penentuan Indikator Keuangan Dalam Internal Credit Rating System Menggunakan Multivariate Discriminant Analysis, Logistic Regression Dan Neural Network. S2 thesis, STIE Indonesia Banking School.
Adiba, E. M., & Amir, F. (2023). Prediction of MSMEs Interest for Halal Certification in Indonesia: Logistic Regression Approach. Falah: Jurnal Ekonomi Syariah, 8(2), 18–31. https://doi.org/10.22219/jes.v8i2.24192
Altman, E.I. and Hotchkiss, E. (2006). Corporate Financial Distress and Bankruptcy: Predict and Avoid Bankruptcy, Analyze and Invest in Distressed Debt. 3rd Edition, John Wiley & Sons, New York. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118267806
Anastasia, E. R., & Riza, F. (2024). Accuracy Analysis of Financial Distress Prediction Models for Companies on the IDX Watchlist Board in 2020-2022 Period. Dinasti International Journal of Economics, Finance &Amp; Accounting, 4(6), 681–689. https://doi.org/10.38035/dijefa.v4i6.2151
Balfas, Hamud M (2012), Hukum Pasar Modal Indonesia, Edisi Revisi, Tatanusa
Connelly, Brian & Certo, Trevis & Ireland, R. & Reutzel, Christopher. (2011). Signaling Theory: A Review and Assessment. Journal of Management - J MANAGE. 37. 39-67. 10.1177/0149206310388419.
Duasa, J., & Zainal, N. H. (2020). Probability of Paying Zakat from Micro Financing Project Return. Etikonomi: Jurnal Ekonomi, 19(2), 333-348. https://doi.org/10.15408/etk.v19i2.15113.
Fachrudin, K. A. (2020). The Relationship between Financial Distress and Financial Health Prediction Model: A Study in Public Manufacturing Companies Listed on Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). Jurnal Akuntansi Dan Keuangan, 22(1), 18-27. https://doi.org/10.9744/jak.22.1.18-27
Fahmi, Irham (2020). Dasar-Dasar Perekonomian Indonesia, Cetakan Kedua, Rajawali Pers
Hair Jr., Joseph F., Anderson, Rolph E., Black, William C., Babin, Barry J. (2019). Multivariate Data Analysis (Eight Edition) (8). Australia, Brazil, Mexico, Sou: Cengage Learning.
Hapsoro, D., & Hartomo, A. B. (2016). Keberadaan Corporate Governance Sebagai Variabel Moderasi Pengaruh Financial Distress Terhadap Earnings Management. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Bisnis, 19(1), 91–116. https://doi.org/10.24914/jeb.v19i1.507
Hermuningsih, Sri & Kusuma, Hadri & Erawati, Teguh & Rahmawati, Anisya. (2022). Fundamental aspects of leverage, profitability and financial distress as mediating variables that influence firm value. Jurnal Akuntansi & Auditing Indonesia. 130-144. 10.20885/jaai.vol26.iss2.art3
Howarth, C. (2010). IIA Practice Guide: Fraud and In-ternal Audit. United States of America
Jaya, I Made Laut Mertha. (2020). Metode Penelitian Kuantitatif dan Kualitatif: Teori, Penerapan dan Riset Nyata, Cet. 3. Yogyakarta: Quadrant.
Koharudin, A., Januarti, I. (2021). Lack of Financial Reporting Using Crowe’s Fraud Pentagon Theory. Jurnal Dinamika Akuntansi, 13(2), 148-157. https://doi.org/http://dx.doi.org/10.15294/jda.v13i2.28602.
Mulyana, D., Widarsono, A., & Apandi, R. N. N. (2023). Going Concern Audit Opinion: Is It Affected by Business Risk And Internal Control? Jurnal Akuntansi Dan Auditing, 20(2), 233-248. https://doi.org/10.14710/jaa.20.2.233-248
Nada, Shofaun. (2015). Penerapan Metode Multiple Discriminant Analysis untuk Mengukur Tingkat Kesehatan yang Mengindikasikan Gejala Financial Distress pada Bank Umum Syariah. Al-Iqtishad: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Syariah. 5. 10.15408/aiq.v5i2.2566.
Nata, Shafitra., Chairunnisa, Rizka., & Arshed, Noman. (2022). Prediction of Islamic Banking Bankruptcy in Indonesia: Comparative Study of Altman Z-Score and Springate Models. Ikonomika: Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Bisnis Islam. http://dx.doi.org/10.24042/febi.v5i2.7747
Nugroho, A. S. & Handayani, S. (2022). Factors that influence financial statement fraud using the fraud diamond model. Jurnal ASET (Akuntansi Riset). Program Studi Akuntansi. Fakultas Pendidikan Ekonomi dan Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia, 14(2), 255–266.
Nur, T. (2019). Comparing the Accuracy of Multiple Discriminant Analyisis, Logistic Regression, and Neural Network to estimate pay and not to pay Dividend. INOBIS: Jurnal Inovasi Bisnis Dan Manajemen Indonesia, 3(1), 97 - 105. https://doi.org/10.31842/jurnal-inobis.v3i1.123
Rahayu, Siti. (2013). Investment Decision In Micro, Small And Medium Enterprises In Indonesia*. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan: Kajian Masalah Ekonomi dan Pembangunan. 14. 1. 10.23917/jep.v14i1.147.
Rivanda, A. K., Muslim, A. I., (2021). Analisis Perbandingan Model Prediksi Financial Distress pada Sub Sektor Textile dan Garment. Jurnal Riset dan Akuntansi 9(3), 485–500. https://doi.org/10.17509/jrak. v9i3.32450
Ross, Stephen A, Westerfield,Randolph W, Jordan,Bradford D, Lim, Joseph & Yan, Ruth. (2018). Pengantar Keuangan Perusahaan; Fundamentals of Corporate Finance Edisi Global Asia (Buku-1). Jakarta: Salemba Empat.
Sasongko, Noer & Wijayantika, Sangrah. (2019). Faktor Resiko Fraud Terhadap Pelaksanaan Fraudulent Financial Reporting (Berdasarkan Pendekatan Crown’s Fraud Pentagon Theory). Riset Akuntansi dan Keuangan Indonesia. 4. 67-76. 10.23917/reaksi.v4i1.7809
Siswanto, Halim & Arifin, A.Z. & Cavin, C. (2019). Critical Factors That Determine Credit Approval to Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSME) IN BEKASI. ETIKONOMI. 18. 10.15408/etk.v18i1.6722.
Spence, Michael (1973). "Job Market Signaling," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 87(3), pages 355-374.
Surepno, S., Cahya, B. T., Andriani, A., & Marpaung, M. (2021). Fraud Pentagon and Fraudulent Financial Reporting in Jakarta Islamic Index. Iqtishadia: Jurnal Kajian Ekonomi dan Bisnis Islam http://dx.doi.org/10.21043/iqtishadia.v14i1.12374
Syaban, Mumun. & Elly, Ratnaningrum. (2021). Statistika Penelitian. penerbit Informatika Bandung.
Triyanto, D. N. (2020). Detection of Financial Reporting Fraud: The Case of Socially Responsible Firms. Journal of Economics, Business, and Accountancy Ventura, 22(3), 399–410. https://doi.org/10.14414/jebav.v22i3.1792
Tuanakotta, T. M. (2013). Mendeteksi Manipulasi Laporan Keuangan. Jakarta: Salemba Empat
Untung, Budi. (2011). Hukum Bisnis Pasar Modal. Yogyakarta: Penerbit ANDI.
Verbeek, M. (2012). A Guide to Modern Econometrics, 4th edition. John Wiley & Sons Inc.
Widagdo, Bambang & Sa'diyah, Chalimatuz. (2022). Financial Distres, Dividend Policy, RGEC And Earning Per Share. TRIKONOMIKA. 21. 37-45. 10.23969/trikonomika. v21i1.5085.
Wolfe, D. T., & Hermanson, D. R. (2004). The Fraud Diamond: Considering the Four Elements of Fraud. http://digitalcommons.kennesaw.edu/facpubs
Peraturan Bursa Efek Indonesia Nomor I-X Tentang Penempatan Pencatatan Efek Bersifat Ekuitas Pada Papan Pemantauan Khusus
Undang-Undang No 8 tahun 1995 tentang Pasar Modal.
Undang-Undang No 21 tahun 2011 tentang Otoritas Jasa Keuangan.
https://www.idx.co.id/en/listed-companies/list-of-securities-under-special-monitoring
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2024 Jodhi Kurniawan , Muchlis Muchlis, Batara Maju Simatupang, Sparta Sparta
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work to acknowledge the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors can enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book) with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) before and during submission. It can lead to productive exchanges and earlier and greater citation of published work.
Abstract Views: 48
| 
File Downloads: 23
