Manajemen Risiko Kredit BNI

Analisis Time Series, Stress Testing, dan Kebijakan Good Corporate Governance untuk Stabilitas Keuangan 2026

Authors

  • Marcellino Amput Universitas Kristen Indonesia
  • Martua Eliakim Tambunan Universitas Kristen Indonesia

Keywords:

NPL Gross, NPL Nett, coverage ratio, stress testing, good corporate governance

Abstract

Perbankan Indonesia menghadapi tantangan kompleks dalam menjaga stabilitas keuangan, terutama terkait risiko kredit. Penelitian ini menganalisis tren Non‑Performing Loan (NPL) Gross dan NPL Nett PT Bank Negara Indonesia (BNI) periode 2023–2025, serta memproyeksikan kondisi tahun 2026 menggunakan pendekatan time series. Data empiris menunjukkan NPL Gross relatif stabil di kisaran 1,9%, sementara NPL Nett meningkat hingga 0,7%, dengan penurunan coverage ratio dari 319% (2023) menjadi 205,5% (2025). Analisis regresi linear memperlihatkan tren NPL Gross menurun, NPL Nett meningkat, dan Net Interest Margin (NIM) tertekan. Simulasi skenario adverse dengan kenaikan suku bunga 50 basis poin memproyeksikan NPL Gross naik ke 4%, NPL Nett ke ±2%, dan coverage ratio turun di bawah 150% jika pencadangan tidak ditingkatkan. Implikasi dari kondisi ini adalah melemahnya profitabilitas, penurunan Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), serta meningkatnya kerentanan sektor UMKM dan energi fosil. Untuk mengatasi kelemahan tata kelola, penelitian ini menekankan penerapan Good Corporate Governance (GCG) melalui dynamic provisioning berbasis IFRS 9, digital risk dashboard, diversifikasi portofolio kredit hijau, dan penguatan koordinasi lintas lini dalam kerangka Three Lines Model. Integrasi antara analisis kuantitatif dan kebijakan tata kelola diharapkan mampu memperkuat daya tahan BNI terhadap risiko sistemik dan menjaga kepercayaan investor.

Author Biography

Martua Eliakim Tambunan, Universitas Kristen Indonesia

The Indonesian banking sector faces complex challenges in maintaining financial stability, particularly in relation to credit risk. This study analyzes the trends of NPL Gross and NPL Net at PT Bank Negara Indonesia (BNI) during the period March 2023–December 2025 using quarterly data. A simple linear regression is applied as a trend analysis tool rather than formal forecasting, given the limited number of observations. The results indicate that NPL Gross shows a declining trend, while NPL Net slightly increases, consistent with the drop in coverage ratio from 319% (2023) to 205.5% (2025). Stress testing under a 50 basis point interest rate hike scenario suggests that NPL Gross could rise to 3–4%, requiring an additional Rp 5–6 trillion in loan loss provisions to maintain a coverage ratio above 200%. These findings highlight that although aggregate credit quality improves, provisioning effectiveness weakens, putting financial stability under pressure. Policy implications include the adoption of dynamic provisioning under IFRS 9, strengthening governance through the Three Lines Model, and integrating Good Corporate Governance (GCG) practices as strategic responses. The novelty of this research lies in combining NPL trend analysis, stress testing, and governance implications to reinforce risk management in Indonesian banking.

References

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Published

2026-08-31

Issue

Vol. 12 No. 2 (2026): Jurnal Ekonomi, Manajemen dan Perbankan (Journal of Economics, Management and Banking)

Section

Articles

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Copyright (c) 2026 Marcellino Amput, Martua Eliakim Tambunan

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