Perubahan Demografi dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi : Bukti Empiris Kasus Indonesia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.35384/jemp.v5i3.158Keywords:
pertumbuhan ekonomi, rasio penduduk pekerja, usia muda, usia tua, Pendapatan perkapitaAbstract
Perubahan demografi yang terjadi di banyak negara berkembang berdampak pada seluruh komponen yang ada dalam ekonomi suatu negara, demikian juga hal ini terjadi di Indoensia. Perubahan demografi yang tidak terkendali tentunya akan berdampak pada kondisi ekonomi negara tersebut. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk menganalisis sejauhmana perubahan demografi berdampak pada pertumbuhan ekonomi serta faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhinya.
Penelitian ini adalah penelitian deskriptif kuantitatif yang mencoba menganalisa dampak perubahan demografi terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Adapaun variabel yang dipergunakan adalah pertumbuhan ekonomi, pendapatan per kapita, pertumbuhan penduduk, rasio pekerja dengan jumlah penduduk, penduduk usia muda dan tua, serta harapan hidup masyarakat. Model analisis yang digunakan adalah reflikasi dari model Bloom Williamson, and Yu; Higgins dan Wiiliamson, dengan teori utama adalah Solow-Swan Model. Menggunakan data time series selama 19 tahun, dan data panel selama 9 tahun dengan 13 provinsi terpilih di Indonesia.
Hasil penelitian menunjukkan, bahwa : untuk model regresi berganda, variabel angka harapan hidup serta rasio pekerja penduduk berpengaruh posistif signifikan terhadapa pertumbuhan ekonomi untuk keseluruhan model yang digunakan, sedangkan pertumbuhan populasi berpengaruh negatif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Sedangkan untuk model data panel per provinsi pertumbuhan pekerja, pendapatan perkapita, pertumbuhan populasi serta usia tua dan muda berpengaruh terhadap peertumbuhan ekonomi, namun rasio perkerja penduduk dan rasio pekerja berpengaruh negatif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi.
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